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Hypothesis: The death of Baby A may be attributable to a medical error in the NeoNatal Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital

 Some weeks ago I described the complexities relating to the prosecution(s) and convictions(s) of Lucy Letby as a "complex matrix of competing hypotheses".  See  A complex spectrum of competing hypotheses  In this post I want briefly to set out my hypothesis regarding the causation of the death of Baby A and the collapse of Baby B. The hyptheses adopted by the prosecution was that Lucy Letby had murdered Baby A and had attempted to murder Baby B. The jury (wrongly in my view) accepted that the prosecution's hypotheses were proven. Lucy Letby was (wrongly) convicted of the (supposed) murder of Baby A and Lucy Letby was also (wrongly) convicted of the (supposed) attempted murder of Baby B. The hypotheses set out by the International Expert Panel were that there had been no murder of attempted murder. My hypothesis is slightly different. It is close to the hypothesis implicitly put forward by the International Expert Panel but specifically includes an element to the eff...

A brief explanation for a long silence

 It is now many weeks since I last posted on this blog. This post seeks briefly to explain some of the issues which have led to that silence. The volume of material on the Lucy Letby miscarriage of justice is enormous. Some of the material in the public domain is, so it seems to me, inaccurate or unreliable. Some of the evidence reportedly given at the trials of Lucy Letby is, in my view, worthless and, in some aspects, seems to me to constitute perjury contrary to Section 1 of the Perjury Act 1911. In addition I have increasingly come to suspect that there may indeed have been crimes in the Neonatal Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital with respect to some of the babies on the indictment against Lucy Letby. Those suspected crimes are Gross Negligence Manslaughter. The cases of suspected Gross Negligence Manslaughter are not, in my view, attributable to Lucy Letby. Those I suspect in relation to the suspected Gross Negligence Manslaughter are among the doctors employed at the C...

Perinatal deaths at the Countess of Chester Hospital - Has anyone asked the question?

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 One of the continuing concerns about the prosecution of Lucy Letby is the narrow, perhaps blinkered, focus on postnatal deaths in the Neonatal Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital. Well, of course those postnatal deaths must be carefully considered. What concerns me is that those postnatal deaths were considered in isolation. It seems to me that they are not the only deaths which need to examined. In my view a worthwhile consideration of the postnatal deaths would also have looked at the number of prenatal deaths i.e. stillbirths in the same institution. At the risk of stating the obvious those babies who died or collapsed in the Neonatal Unit had in all likelihood been born in the Maternity Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital. If, hypothetically, there was a factor in the Maternity Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital causing mortality and morbidity in the Neonatal Unit which was unrelated to Lucy Letby that hypothetical factor might also be expected to be fatally ha...

Rex v Letby: A complex spectrum of competing hypotheses

 When, a few days ago, I began this blog I used the terms "anatomy of a miscarriage of justice" and "anatomy of a witch hunt". It remains my view that Lucy Letby has been the subject of a miscarriage of justice and continues to be the subject of a witch hunt. The volume of written and video material relating to the prosecution of Lucy Letby is enormous. A substantial proportion of it is, in my view, worthless or of little evidential value. It seems to me that to make sense of this mass of material it is appropriate to consider the prosecution of Lucy Letby as a contest among a spectrum of competing hypotheses. At one end of the spectrum is the implicit notion that Lucy Letby not only murdered or sought to murder all the babies to which the indictment referred but may also have killed or sought to kill a substantial number of other babies both at the Countess of Chester Hospital and in Liverpool. At the other end of the spectrum is the notion that all the deaths and ...

The "bourachie" of deaths and collapses in the Neonatal Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital: the need for proper analysis

 The prosecution of Lucy Letby arose from a "bourachie" of deaths and collapses in the Neonatal Unit of the Countess of Chester hospital between June 2015 and June 2016. I imagine that 99% of the readers of this post will have no idea what "bourachie" means. I think the term "bourachie" is an appropriate starting point to the dispassionate, scientific analysis of the observed deaths and collapses in the Neonatal Unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital between June 2015 and June 2016. A "bourachie" is a Doric term broadly meaning a group. Doric is a dialect in North East Scotland. A "bourachie", I suggest, is the appropriate term to use when the cause (or causes) of a numerical phenomenon, such as the observed events in the Neonatal Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital, is unknown or unclear. The cause(s) of the deaths and collapses at the Countess of Chester Hospital was unknown in 2017 when, so it seems, as a result of pressure f...

Rex v Letby: Anatomy of a miscarriage of justice. Anatomy of a witch hunt

 The prosecution of Lucy Letby for multiple counts of murder and multiple counts of attempted murder is a cause for huge public concern. This blog will seek to analyse the "evidence" against Lucy Letby in sufficient detail to demonstrate that her conviction for multiple counts of murder and multiple counts of attempted murder is unsafe. In addition I will seek to explore the issues which lead me to conclude that the Thirlwall Inquiry may fairly be termed a "witch hunt". More when I feel that I am in a position to put the evidence together to support my contention that there has been a miscarriage of justice and that the Thirlwall Inquiry is an officially-sanctioned "witch hunt".