The "bourachie" of deaths and collapses in the Neonatal Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital: the need for proper analysis

 The prosecution of Lucy Letby arose from a "bourachie" of deaths and collapses in the Neonatal Unit of the Countess of Chester hospital between June 2015 and June 2016.

I imagine that 99% of the readers of this post will have no idea what "bourachie" means.

I think the term "bourachie" is an appropriate starting point to the dispassionate, scientific analysis of the observed deaths and collapses in the Neonatal Unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital between June 2015 and June 2016.

A "bourachie" is a Doric term broadly meaning a group.

Doric is a dialect in North East Scotland.

A "bourachie", I suggest, is the appropriate term to use when the cause (or causes) of a numerical phenomenon, such as the observed events in the Neonatal Unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital, is unknown or unclear.

The cause(s) of the deaths and collapses at the Countess of Chester Hospital was unknown in 2017 when, so it seems, as a result of pressure from Dr. Stephen Brearey and his consultant paediatrician colleagues the deaths on the Neonatal Unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital were reported to Cheshire Constabulary.

The first media reports of which I am aware are on 18th May 2017. For example, the Guardian article on the referral to Cheshire Constabulary is here:

Police investigating baby deaths at Countess of Chester hospital 

It seems to me that the observed deaths and collapses weren't a "spike". They were spread out too far in time to make "spike" an appropriate term.

It seems to me that it's questionable to refer to the observed deaths and collapses as a "cluster" since the observed events were spread unevenly over a period of around 12 months.

It's also not clear, at least to me, that there was a significant rise in the number of observed deaths and/or observed collapses. 

The number of observed events between June 2015 and June 2016 was higher was higher than in comparable periods before that or subsequently but until a proper statistical analysis has been carried out it's impossible, I suggest, reliably to claim that there was a "significant rise".

The claim of Dame Victoria Sharp and her colleagues in the Court of Appeal,

"Between June 2015 and June 2016 there was a significant rise in the number of deaths and sudden and serious collapses of babies at the unit at the hospital.

is, in my view, an unwarranted statistical assertion regarding the meaning and/or interpretation of the "bourachie" of deaths and collapses.

See

 "R v Letby Final Judgment"

at Paragraph 20 for the source of the preceding quote. 

For me, the "bourachie" of deaths and collapses in the Neonatal Unit between June 2015 and June 2016 requires careful dispassionate analysis.

As far as I'm aware the necessary careful, dispassionate analysis hasn't been carried out.

One reason for that fundamental failure is that the "prosecutor" (who seems likely to be either Pascale Jones of the Crown Prosecution Service or Nick Johnson KC) reportedly on an undisclosed date in 2021 instructed Cheshire Constabulary to discontinue steps towards a competent (and, in my view, necessary) statistical analysis by Professor Jane Hutton. See the section headed "Validity of Statistics" here:

Lucy Letby: police and CPS handling of case raises new concerns about convictions 

In my view the failure of the Crown Prosecution Service, the trials under Mr. Justice Goss and the Court of Appeal properly to analyse the "bourachie" of deaths and collapses is one of many instances of failings, errors and/or misconduct during the investigation and prosecution of Lucy Letby which have resulted in an appalling miscarriage of justice.

In future posts on this blog I hope to cut through the complexity of the facts, the statistics, the questionable "expert" evidence and other factors which have, in my view, led to an appalling miscarriage of justice.

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